Newcastle vs Manchester United — prediction & result
Newcastle vs Manchester United — Premier League.
Kick-off: 2026-12-02T20:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Manchester United 30%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%).
The model gives the home side a 41.7% chance, the draw 28.0% and the away side 30.3% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 56% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 19% with both teams scoring at 44% (expected goals 1.22 vs 0.99).
Premier League · Newcastle · Manchester United · Today's matches