Real Madrid vs Alaves — prediction & result
Real Madrid vs Alaves — La Liga.
Kick-off: 2026-11-29T16:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Real Madrid 72%, draw 17%, Alaves 12%.
Most likely scorelines: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
The model gives the home side a 71.7% chance, the draw 16.7% and the away side 11.5% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 2:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 49% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% with both teams scoring at 52% (expected goals 2.42 vs 0.84).
La Liga · Real Madrid · Alaves · Today's matches