Middlesbrough vs Swansea — prediction & result
Middlesbrough vs Swansea — Championship.
Kick-off: 2026-11-24T19:45:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Middlesbrough 43%, draw 24%, Swansea 33%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
The model gives the home side a 43.0% chance, the draw 24.3% and the away side 32.7% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 45% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% with both teams scoring at 58% (expected goals 1.55 vs 1.32).
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