Derby vs Watford — prediction & result
Derby vs Watford — Championship.
Kick-off: 2026-11-28T15:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Derby 51%, draw 30%, Watford 20%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (19%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (12%).
The model gives the home side a 50.6% chance, the draw 29.5% and the away side 19.9% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 68% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 15% with both teams scoring at 33% (expected goals 1.21 vs 0.64).
Championship · Derby · Watford · Today's matches