Port Vale vs Newport County — prediction & result
Port Vale vs Newport County — League Two.
Kick-off: 2026-11-28T15:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Port Vale 43%, draw 37%, Newport County 20%.
Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (25%), 1-0 (23%), 0-1 (13%).
The model gives the home side a 43.0% chance, the draw 36.8% and the away side 20.2% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 0:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 81% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 7% with both teams scoring at 22% (expected goals 0.86 vs 0.49).
League Two · Port Vale · Newport County · Today's matches