FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin — prediction & result
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin — Bundesliga.
Kick-off: 2026-11-28T14:30:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 46%, draw 24%, Union Berlin 30%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
The model gives the home side a 46.2% chance, the draw 23.5% and the away side 30.2% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 43% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% with both teams scoring at 59% (expected goals 1.68 vs 1.31).
Bundesliga · FSV Mainz 05 · Union Berlin · Today's matches