Ajax vs FC Thun — prediction & result
Ajax vs FC Thun — UEFA Europa Conference League.
Kick-off: 2026-11-26T17:45:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Ajax 62%, draw 18%, FC Thun 20%.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
The model gives the home side a 62.1% chance, the draw 17.6% and the away side 20.3% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 2:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 35% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% with both teams scoring at 75% (expected goals 2.89 vs 1.60).
UEFA Europa Conference League · Ajax · FC Thun · Today's matches