Hamburger SV vs Bayern München — prediction & result
Hamburger SV vs Bayern München — Bundesliga.
Kick-off: 2026-11-28T14:30:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Hamburger SV 13%, draw 17%, Bayern München 70%.
Most likely scorelines: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
The model gives the home side a 12.9% chance, the draw 17.2% and the away side 69.9% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 0:2 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 46% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% with both teams scoring at 55% (expected goals 0.92 vs 2.44).
Bundesliga · Hamburger SV · Bayern München · Today's matches