Wolves vs Derby — prediction & result
Wolves vs Derby — Championship.
Kick-off: 2026-11-24T20:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Wolves 46%, draw 26%, Derby 28%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%).
The model gives the home side a 46.4% chance, the draw 25.8% and the away side 27.9% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 51% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% with both teams scoring at 50% (expected goals 1.44 vs 1.05).
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