Maritimo vs Nacional — prediction & result
Maritimo vs Nacional — Primeira Liga.
Kick-off: 2026-11-27T20:15:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Maritimo 37%, draw 29%, Nacional 34%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%).
The model gives the home side a 37.3% chance, the draw 29.2% and the away side 33.5% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 59% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 17% with both teams scoring at 42% (expected goals 1.08 vs 1.01).
Primeira Liga · Maritimo · Nacional · Today's matches