Alay vs Neftchi — prediction & result
Alay vs Neftchi — Premier League.
Kick-off: 2026-11-02T13:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Alay 48%, draw 29%, Neftchi 23%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (17%), 0-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%).
The model gives the home side a 47.8% chance, the draw 28.9% and the away side 23.3% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 64% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 16% with both teams scoring at 38% (expected goals 1.23 vs 0.76).
Alay · Neftchi · Today's matches