Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul — prediction & result
Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX.
Kick-off: 2026-11-22T23:07:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Guadalajara Chivas 43%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 31%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (9%).
The model gives the home side a 43.1% chance, the draw 25.9% and the away side 31.0% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 49% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% with both teams scoring at 51% (expected goals 1.40 vs 1.14).
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