Malaga vs Athletic Club — prediction & result
Malaga vs Athletic Club — La Liga.
Kick-off: 2026-11-29T16:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Malaga 34%, draw 27%, Athletic Club 39%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%).
The model gives the home side a 34.1% chance, the draw 27.2% and the away side 38.7% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 53% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 22% with both teams scoring at 48% (expected goals 1.13 vs 1.23).
La Liga · Malaga · Athletic Club · Today's matches