Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP — prediction & result

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP — UEFA Champions League.

Kick-off: 2026-11-03T17:45:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.

Model probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 54%, draw 18%, Sporting CP 28%.

Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%).

The model gives the home side a 54.0% chance, the draw 17.8% and the away side 28.2% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.

Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 56% of outcomes.

Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% with both teams scoring at 43% (expected goals 1.50 vs 0.84).

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP