Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain — prediction & result
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1.
Kick-off: 2026-12-04T19:45:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Toulouse 7%, draw 14%, Paris Saint Germain 80%.
Most likely scorelines: 0-2 (15%), 0-3 (13%), 0-1 (12%).
The model gives the home side a 6.6% chance, the draw 13.8% and the away side 79.6% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 0:2 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 57% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% with both teams scoring at 40% (expected goals 0.57 vs 2.53).
Ligue 1 · Toulouse · Paris Saint Germain · Today's matches