Burnley vs Birmingham — prediction & result
Burnley vs Birmingham — Championship.
Kick-off: 2026-11-25T19:45:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Burnley 23%, draw 30%, Birmingham 47%.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (18%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (12%).
The model gives the home side a 22.8% chance, the draw 30.1% and the away side 47.1% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 0:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 67% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 14% with both teams scoring at 34% (expected goals 0.70 vs 1.15).
Championship · Burnley · Birmingham · Today's matches