Ecuador vs Bolivia — prediction & result
Ecuador vs Bolivia — Friendlies.
Kick-off: 2026-11-17T21:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Ecuador 64%, draw 24%, Bolivia 12%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (21%), 2-0 (16%), 0-0 (13%).
The model gives the home side a 63.9% chance, the draw 24.4% and the away side 11.7% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 67% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 21% with both teams scoring at 30% (expected goals 1.53 vs 0.48).
Ecuador · Bolivia · Today's matches