Gremio vs Bahia — prediction & result
Gremio vs Bahia — Brasileirão Serie A.
Kick-off: 2026-11-18T21:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Gremio 32%, draw 26%, Bahia 42%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%).
The model gives the home side a 31.9% chance, the draw 26.2% and the away side 41.9% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 50% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% with both teams scoring at 50% (expected goals 1.14 vs 1.35).
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