Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer.
Kick-off: 2026-11-01T21:30:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Nashville SC 54%, draw 18%, New York Red Bulls 27%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (17%), 0-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%).
The model gives the home side a 54.3% chance, the draw 18.4% and the away side 27.3% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 62% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% with both teams scoring at 39% (expected goals 1.44 vs 0.68).
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