Goal spread lines

Where the model's probabilities differ most from the market reference — updated after every model run.

Market deviations

1X2 probabilities from the model vs the market reference, ranked by the largest gap.

Match HomeDrawAway Gap

Market reference: de-vigged median of the latest quoted prices across bookmakers, shown for comparison only.

Goal spread lines

Coverage probability from the model's score matrix vs the market reference, by line.

Match Line ModelMarket ref Gap
Matches Predictions National News Goal spread Model monitor