Casa Pia vs Sporting CP — prediction & result
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga.
Kick-off: 2026-10-30T20:15:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Casa Pia 32%, draw 29%, Sporting CP 39%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%).
The model gives the home side a 32.1% chance, the draw 29.1% and the away side 38.7% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 43% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% with both teams scoring at 59% (expected goals 1.35 vs 1.64).
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