Leon vs Toluca — prediction & result
Leon vs Toluca — Liga MX.
Kick-off: 2026-10-24T23:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Leon 46%, draw 24%, Toluca 30%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
The model gives the home side a 46.2% chance, the draw 24.1% and the away side 29.7% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 45% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% with both teams scoring at 57% (expected goals 1.61 vs 1.24).
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