RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg — Bundesliga.
Kick-off: 2026-11-07T14:30:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: RB Leipzig 67%, draw 19%, FC Augsburg 13%.
Most likely scorelines: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%).
The model gives the home side a 67.5% chance, the draw 19.1% and the away side 13.5% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 2:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 52% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% with both teams scoring at 49% (expected goals 2.12 vs 0.81).
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