Union St. Gilloise vs Lech Poznan — prediction & result
Union St. Gilloise vs Lech Poznan — UEFA Europa League.
Kick-off: 2026-11-26T17:45:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 55%, draw 22%, Lech Poznan 24%.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
The model gives the home side a 54.5% chance, the draw 21.8% and the away side 23.7% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 2:1 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 43% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% with both teams scoring at 60% (expected goals 1.95 vs 1.21).
UEFA Europa League · Union St. Gilloise · Lech Poznan · Today's matches