After eight days of Ligue1, the Opta supercomputer updated its final ranking forecasts for the 2026-2027 season. Paris Saint-Germain remains the undisputed favorite for the title, while the fight for European places is proving particularly tight. The biggest surprise concerns Olympique de Marseille, which sees itself projected far from the podium, behind several of its direct rivals.
The final round saw PSG beat Olympique Lyonnais 2-0, RCLens win 2-1 over ParisFC and a 1-1 draw between Monaco and Lille. Based on these results and the teams' current form, Opta simulated thousands of scenarios to estimate each club's chances of reaching a specific position at the end of the season. The model takes into account recent performance, the quality of the squad and the difficulty of the remaining schedule.
According to projections, PSG has an 88.66% chance of finishing as champions. The Parisian club, which became leader again after its victory against Lyon, maintains a positive dynamic despite some difficulties encountered at the start of the season. Stade Rennais, for its part, is placed in third place with a 15.52% probability of finishing exactly in this rank, offering an encouraging prospect for the Bretons who could aim for the Champions League if the trend continues. Lyon, currently fifth, has a 13.45% chance of finishing fourth, which would keep them in the European race, although competition from Monaco, Rennes, Lens and Lille will be fierce.
RCLens, who won their match against ParisFC, are projected in fifth place with a 12.83% chance. Captain Florian Thauvin, with four goals and eight assists in eight games, remains a major asset, but the AI remains cautious about the team's ability to maintain this momentum. On the other hand, Lille, which currently occupied third place, is now projected to sixth position with only an 11% chance of finishing in this rank. Simulations show Lille could end up anywhere between second and sixth, highlighting the uncertainty of their European future.
The most alarming prediction concerns Marseille. Despite the arrival of Bruno Genesio, OM are projected in eighth place, with a 10.36% chance of finishing in exactly this position. The club finds itself behind PSG, Monaco, Rennes, Lyon, Lens, Lille and even ParisFC, which represents a major disappointment for a team that aspires to the Champions League. This projection reflects the difficulties observed at the start of the season, notably the lack of consistency and insufficient performances against certain opponents.
In summary, PSG remains the surest candidate for the title, while the battle for European places promises to be very competitive. Stade Rennais, Lyon and RCLens have great ambitions, but OM will have to correct their trajectory to avoid the disaster scenario predicted by the AI. The season remains long, and dynamics can change quickly, but current trends already indicate an intense fight for European places.