Real Betis is already precisely calculating the necessary steps to ensure its place in the group stage of the Champions League. With two victories in its first two days, the Seville team, led by Juan Carlos Pellegrini, is just one win away from Feyenoord to reach nine points, a figure that, according to the Football Meets Data (FMD) statistical model, would give it more than half the chance of finishing among the top 24 in the competition.
The website specialized in European statistics indicates that teams that finish with nine points have a 52% probability of qualifying, although the goal difference and the results of the other groups can influence the outcome. If Betis manages to add 12 points, the probability shoots up to 100%, according to the same calculations and historical data from previous seasons. Victory over Feyenoord would therefore not only bring them closer to that figure, but would also give them a considerable advantage on the qualification stage.
The next step for the team is the match against Borussia Dortmund. A victory in that match would allow them to reach 12 points, which, with four rounds remaining, would practically ensure their passage to the group stage. The FMD simulation projects Betis in ninth position after the second day, with 15 points and a goal balance of +2. Atlético Madrid, on the other hand, would finish eighth with the same score but with a greater goal difference, which would leave Betis very close to direct qualification to the second round, although not yet guaranteed.
To enter directly into the round of 16, the model places the goal at 16 points, with an average probability of 81.5%. With 15 points the probability falls to 35.3% and with 14 points only 6.9%. Data from previous campaigns confirm that 16 points are usually the threshold to go directly to the second round. In the 2024/25 season, Aston Villa finished eighth with 16 points, while Bruges, with 11, was in the last place to qualify for the playoffs. In 2025/26, the cut of the 'top 8' was again 16, and teams such as Benfica, Bodo/Glimt and Olympique de Marseille, with nine points, finished outside the qualification zone.
Betis, therefore, has a clear path: beat Feyenoord to get closer to nine points, win against Dortmund to reach 12 and, with the four remaining games - Slovan Bratislava at home, Como at home, Arsenal in La Cartuja and Bayern Munich in Germany -, consolidate its position and secure a place in the group stage. The pressure will be high, but with Pellegrini's squad and management, the team has already proven that it can compete on the European stage.