Arouca vs Rio Ave — prediction & result
Arouca vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga.
Kick-off: 2026-11-28T15:30:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Arouca 61%, draw 24%, Rio Ave 15%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (18%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%).
The model gives the home side a 60.7% chance, the draw 24.4% and the away side 14.9% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 62% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 23% with both teams scoring at 37% (expected goals 1.57 vs 0.63).
Primeira Liga · Arouca · Rio Ave · Today's matches