RB Leipzig vs Lens — prediction & result
RB Leipzig vs Lens — UEFA Champions League.
Kick-off: 2026-11-24T20:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: RB Leipzig 70%, draw 18%, Lens 11%.
Most likely scorelines: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%).
The model gives the home side a 70.4% chance, the draw 18.1% and the away side 11.4% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 2:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 54% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% with both teams scoring at 46% (expected goals 2.17 vs 0.73).
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