Manchester City vs Leeds — prediction & result
Manchester City vs Leeds — Premier League.
Kick-off: 2026-12-02T20:00:00Z (UTC). Model probabilities are locked before kick-off and reconciled afterwards.
Model probabilities: Manchester City 54%, draw 23%, Leeds 22%.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
The model gives the home side a 54.4% chance, the draw 23.4% and the away side 22.2% — a full distribution, not a single verdict.
Most probable scoreline is 1:0 — but the top five scorelines together cover only 49% of outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% with both teams scoring at 52% (expected goals 1.71 vs 0.99).
Premier League · Manchester City · Leeds · Today's matches